Monday, September 10, 2007

Thomson Scientific Predicts Nobel Laureates

OK, the season for the Nobel Prizes is coming up. Everyone seems to have their own ideas. However, Thomson Scientific has a more "statistical-based" prediction using the citation index. This is what they came up with for Physics:

Sumio Iijima - Meijo University (Japan);
Martin J. Rees - University of Cambridge;
Arthur B. McDonald - Queen's University (Canada);
Yoji Totsuka - University of Tokyo (Japan).

Still, their batting average isn't that good.

Of the 54 Thomson Scientific Laureates named since 2002, four have gone on to win Nobel honors.

4 out of 54 is not a good percentage, so I'm not sure what they're croaking about. In many instances, even a moron can predict who will win (the Bednorz and Muller award was a no-brainer). And I had predicted Leggett and Abrikosov back in the mid 90's already.

We will see how accurate they are this year. So what is YOUR prediction for this year?


No comments: