Johnson and his research team gathered publicly available data on military fatalities in Afghanistan and Iraq. On a graph, the numbers created a distinct, upward curve.I'm typically skeptical of this type of modeling of human behavior. In this instant, the unpredictability of even the action of one person is enough to screw up the predictions, and that in turn could have a chain of consequences.
He says it wasn't just a coincidence; those numbers follow a specific mathematical pattern. In this case, the pattern translates into an equation you can punch into a handheld calculator, says Johnson.
Besides, once something like this is published, who is to say that these insurgents would not become aware of their pattern, and try to plan their attacks to NOT follow such pattern?